USDJPY

December 22,

Inflation Indicator Focused by US Federal Reserve

Yesterday’s dollar / yen stagnated. It rose to 113.60 yen at one time, but as the long-term interest rate ceased to rise, it did not renew at the high price since beginning of the month (113.747 yen) and was pushed back to the 113.20-30 yen level. Today at 22:30, the US consumer spending price index (PCE deflator) will be announced, the US Federal Reserve Board (Fed) will focus as an inflation index.

Market forecasts are 1.8% year-on-year, it is expected to accelerate from + 1.6% in October.

The core PCE deflator, excluding food and energy, is also expected to accelerate to + 1.5% over the previous year. If these are more than expected, the dollar will become easier to buy with the rise in US long-term interest rates. Conversely, if the growth declines from October, it is also conceivable that the US long-term interest rate decline and the flow of the weakening dollar will strengthen. However, today the US bond market is shortening trading. While the market enters Christmas holiday mode, long-term interest rates and US dollars may not respond strongly if we stay within the expected range.